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Sunday, April 13, 2008

12 Ways To Prepare For The Next Great Depression

Our economic future could be even bleaker than you expect — and last year was the moment to unleash your inner survivalist. If the financial system suffers any more crises of confidence, credit gets even tighter, and the fed falls into a liquidity trap, we could be in for several hardscrabbling dystopian years.

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1 comment:

Shalem said...

The Commodity Conundrum Solved

The Hidden Parameter in Interest Rates

The Shape of the Yield Curve as First Order Parameter of the Minerals' Price Movements

Executive summary:


The commodities I am studying here are the one with potentially very low storage cost. Minerals when kept in the ground have a storage cost next to zero.

Investors need of a reliable, efficient, timely and precise index of the future evolution of the price of minerals.

They need a mean to evaluate the
risk of a position in order to calibrate the size and the risk of their exposure.

I observed a strong link between the evolution of the market price of minerals and the shape of the yield curve.

The idea is that given an inverted yield curve the marginal cost of extraction of minerals becomes irrelevant to their market price as miners stop maximizing their output under constraint of the marginal cost of extraction.

Profit maximization would have them trying to retain a higher proportion of their minerals in
the ground rather than extract them.

The quality of the index, the slope of the yield curve, is superior to any other known system.

It is Timely.
It is Accurate.
It Gives a Measure of How Stable Is the Trend and How Safe is the Exposure.
The Model of the Yield Curve is Proprietary.

Shalom
Hamou
Independent Yield Curve Special Adviser
shalem.ashalem@gmail.com
Seeking
Alpha